Chasing Oscar?
A statistical deep-dive into The Year of the Brodie
I’m just going to come right out and say it, because it needs to be said: Triple-doubles are overrated.
Yet suddenly, that’s all we care about. We can recite the story line by heart. Russell Westbrook has 16 already this year. He’s averaging a triple-double through nearly half of the Thunder’s schedule. He would become the first player to average a triple-double over the course of a season since…(all together now!)…Oscar Robertson in 1961–62.
With stats updated through January 1st, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton still projects just a 21% chance that Westbrook can sustain his pace through the entire season and catch the Big O. Lest we forget, notching triple-doubles is supposed to be difficult.
At this point though, most Thunder fans are experts on the counter-argument. It’s not fair!
In the 1961–62 season, games were played at an unbelievable pace of 126.2 possessions per game, which yielded not only Oscar’s (thought to be unreachable) triple-double campaign, but also Wilt’s truly unreachable 50 ppg/25 rpg season average.
To prove the point, Bob Pettit and Walt Bellamy averaged more than 31 points and 18 rebounds per contest that year. Heard of them? Not everyone has.
This season’s pace is hovering around 99 possessions per game, a huge drop from Oscar’s record-setting year. On top of that, Robertson played 44.3 minutes per game as opposed to Westbrook’s 34.6. Bear with me if you’ve heard this about a million times already.
Adjusted to Roberton’s pace and minutes played, Westbrook is averaging a mind-boggling 40.07 ppg, 13.63 rpg, and 13.81 apg. That should put most of the comparison chatter to bed (numbers calculated through 1/1).
Still, this sideshow has hijacked the entire Thunder season, dominating the news cycle and infecting the Thunder fan base with triple-double fever. The day after a game, Thunder fans don’t ask each other, “did we win last night?” nearly as often as, “did Russ get another triple-double?” Over Thanksgiving my cousin, an avid Thunder fan, shared with me a sentiment held by more Thunder fans than would care to admit. “It would be worth it to see him do it, even if we had to miss the playoffs!”
The path to this triple-double-mania is understandable. Since the traumatic events of July 4th, followed by the triumph of August 4th, Thunder fans have tried to cover the Brodie in glory. We want nothing more than to see him succeed, whatever it takes. We want him in the record books, with “Oklahoma City” next to his name.
But for a team sitting at 21–13 and tied for the 4th seed in the Western Conference (through 1/1), I think it’s time we retire the viewpoint.
That’s not meant to further this misconception floating around that says Westbrook going for triple-doubles is somehow antithetical to the team’s success. After all, the Thunder are 13–3 when he notches one, versus just 8–10 when he doesn’t.
It’s just that the craving for this statistical anomaly has gotten out of control. Since when did we care so much about triple-doubles? Did you know the phrase “triple-double” didn’t even exist until NBA stats godfather Harvey Pollack coined the term during Magic Johnson’s rookie season in 1979–1980, a whole 18 years after Robertson’s incredible run?
It’s basically just another way to statistically say “this guy is really good!” The double-digit distinction is cool but arbitrary. Over an 82 game sample size, is a 6‘3"’ point guard averaging 9.9 rebounds per game any less impressive than 10.0?
Westbrook is leading the league in scoring, second in assists, and is the only player in the top 15 in rebounding that’s under 6‘9". Forget the averages, that’s insane!
Yet it seems his MVP candidacy is tied inescapably to whether he maintains his triple-double pace. Can you imagine if a handful of rebounds cost him the trophy to James Harden or Kevin Durant?
When you consider that scenario, it’s surprising he has denied, at least publicly, the importance of the stat.
“Honestly, man, people and this triple-double thing is kind of getting on my nerves,” he said when asked earlier this year, “…if I get it, I get it. If I don’t, I don’t…for the 100th time, I don’t care.”
That’s so hard for us to accept! The reason why Westbrook’s intentions are so important to us is because it seems impossible for him to achieve the feat unless he actively pursues it.
But the numbers may actually disagree.
The most obvious reason is simply opportunity. Russell Westbrook has the ball in his hands a lot. In fact his usage rate, a stat that determines what percentage of a teams plays are used by a player while he’s on the floor, is 42%.
For context, the all-time record for usage rate in a single season is 38.7% set by Kobe Bryant during his 2005–06 campaign that included over 27 field goal attempts per game and his 81-point performance. Kobe was a ball hog. Well in a strictly literal “deciding who shoots” sense, Westbrook is more of a ball hog than Kobe was even that year by a fairly large margin. Obviously there’s a difference how that usage is distributed, but the fact remains that Russ has the ball in his hands to score, assist (or turn it over) just over 35 times per game.
When that kind of opportunity is given to a player with Westbrook’s blend of otherworldly aggressiveness, athleticism and skill, the points and assists will come.
Which brings us to the rebounds. Ah yes, everyone’s favorite talking point. Detractors will say Westbrook grabs rebounds away from the big men, selfishly racking up stats with no regard for the team.
And admittedly, oftentimes the big men let him take the board. But the tactic is actually a strategic advantage for the Thunder. A point guard’s job on any team is not to leak out but rather stay back to receive an outlet pass and then push the ball up the floor. With Westbrook taking the rebound — a rebound the team will get anyways — he removes one step in the process and allows for a speed on the transition that catches opponents off guard.
Here’s a perfect example:
And it’s not even like he’s playing more minutes to ensure that he gets a triple-double. His 34.6 mpg average would actually be just the third highest average of his career, and within 0.3 minutes per game of what he has played in the past two seasons — nearly identical.
So the more I inspect the situation, the more this quote seems truthful.
“All I care about is winning, man, honestly. All the numbers, (expletive) don’t mean nothing to me.”
It’s not so hard to believe that Russ is just out there playing, the only way he knows how. His confidence in his ability to score or assist nearly everything is not different this year than it was during the more head-scratching moments of years past.
“Now I do what I want” is a great slogan for this season, but when has he not done what he wants?
Nor is it unfamiliar to Thunder fans to see “Good Russ” games and “Bad Russ” games each season, only now the impact is magnified.
“Good Russ” (triple-double games):
31.6 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 13.7 apg, 45.87% FG, 13–3 W/L
“Bad Russ” (non-triple-double games):
30.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 7.9 apg, 40.96% FG, 8–11 W/L
And actually, from Westbrook’s perspective, wouldn’t wins be the best way to prove his value and undermine the effect of Durant’s departure?
As Chris Mannix noted this past week on The Vertical, when Lebron left Cleveland they went 19–63. The Hornets the year after Chris Paul left: 21–45. After Dwight Howard’s departure, Orlando was 21–61.
If Westbrook truly wants to prove that he’s better than Kevin Durant, or that he doesn’t need Kevin Durant — another thing he won’t publicly admit though it seems fairly obvious — this might be the best way to do it. Especially since all KD is doing is talking, and talking, and talking (*Rolling Eyes Emoji*).
So here’s what I’m saying Thunder fans.
Forget the triple-doubles. Since we’re all #TeamWestbrook, let’s support him the right way.
By supporting the team. By supporting the OKC Thunder.
